General election: The hidden battles

General election: The hidden battles

Premesh Chandran | Feb 19, 08 12:58pm

As the days count down to polling day on March 8, voters will be bombarded with political rhetoric from both political camps. The incumbents Barisan Nasional (BN) will push their track record of leading the nation for 50 years, while painting the opposition as divided and ill-equipped to lead the nation. The opposition pact – PKR, DAP and PAS will point to a political elite drowning the country in corruption and scandal as well as the inability of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to clean up the system in an era of increasing global competitiveness. Although the recent series of massive public demonstrations has upped the political tempo, there is little indication of that the BN incumbency will be seriously tested. Indeed, the opposition has made it a point to declare that the election system is anything but fair, pointing to a tainted electoral role, the open use of government machinery and BN’s total control over the media. Having won 90 percent of Parliament seats in 2004, BN is expecting to lose a few. The big prize for them will be Kelantan, the only state government not within the BN ambit. Having lost narrowly in 2004, they are confident of wrestling back the east coast state from PAS who has governed since 1990. Nevertheless, the opposition does hope to reduce BN’s political dominance. With a noticeable disappointment among non-Malay voters, and former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim leading the opposition campaign, opposition politicians expect to generate a swing of 8-12 percent, and take at least 30 parliament seats. Optimists have even declared 50 seats as a viable target, a significant breakthrough and a platform to launch a credible challenge at the subsequent general elections due by 2013. First victims have fallen Below the din of the campaign, the first political victims have already fallen. A blow below the belt has knocked out MCA rising star Dr Chua Soi Lek, while the early election will prevent PKR’s de facto leader Anwar from contesting. With Umno and MCA facing party elections this year, the next round of victims will fall on nomination day, February 24. Bitter internal party rivalries will see pledges of loyalty rewarded and potential threats relegated to the benches. Although Abdullah has said he will be looking at ‘report cards’ of shortlisted candidates, it is more than likely that internal party dictates will dominate the selection process. Several ministers and veteran leaders are expected to bow out, in favour of fresh faces. There is even talk of MIC president S Samy Vellu not contesting, although hints of this by Abdullah may just be a bargaining position to extract a retirement timeline from his comrade who has been in cabinet for over 25 years. Within the opposition, the DAP seems to have most problems heading towards nomination day. Having lost their two time MP and ‘cili padi’ Fong Po Kuan to internal party rift, they are also internal resistance to the new entries in Penang and possible three-corner fights with PKR and PSM in Perak and Sarawak. DAP seems to be fighting a battle against other opposition parties encroaching into their traditional Chinese majority seats. With all 10 parliament seats they won in 2004 coming from areas with at least 80 percent non-Malay voters, DAP has been extremely reluctant to give up any winnable seat to Chinese leaders from PKR. DAP is also blocking PSM from a straight fight against the BN in the Sungai Siput parliament seat and the Jalong state seat, despite coming third in a three corner fight in 2004. Given the obvious role of a strong PKR to forge links between PAS and DAP and to provide a strong opposition alternative in mixed seats, it is hard to understand Perak DAP’s political calculus, beyond self-preservation. Redrawing BN The real battle of the 12th general election may be one raging within the BN. Abdullah’s first term has marked a major political shift within BN, with Umno dominating the cabinet and policy decisions. The political subservience of the other major parties was most clearly demonstrated when their ministers were told to withdraw their memorandum on race relations following the Moorthy case. MCA, MIC and Gerakan were also unable to respond critically to subsequent judicial decisions that undermined the constitution and the rights of non-Muslims, as well as militant calls at the Umno general assembly for further entrenchment of Malay rights, pronouncements of Malaysia as an Islamic state or defend the Asli study which pointed out that NEP targets have already been met. PPP was forced to stomach the invitation of a senior Umno leader to leave the BN if they were not happy. MCA has not been able to force the re-opening of the Damansara Chinese school while MIC could do nothing to prevent temple demolitions, the de-recognition of a medical school in Ukraine with a large number of ethnic Indian students, the disproportion death in police custody of Indians or act on critical issues such as non-citizenship of many ethnic Indians born in Malaysia, wages of plantation workers and access to education and economic opportunity. It is unlikely that Umno has any intention of allowing other voices to prevail in government. With the anticipated tightening of government spending as oil income rapidly declines over the next 5 years, as well as liberalization of certain sectors to foreign participation, UMNO is likely to launch a new grab for economic benefits, via additional quotas under the NEP combined with more "negotiated" tenders and concessions to the Umno elite. Recognising that demographics trends and gerrymandering has reduced the influence of non-Malay voters, Umno has decided to go ahead with an early election, in the midst of the Chinese New Year celebrations, and as the impact of the Hindraf rally continues to dominate political discussions within the Indian community. Compliant non-Malay leaders The Machiavellian decision precisely undermines the non-Malay Peninsula-based BN component parties, and will deprive them of a number of seats in non-Malay areas. Those who survive, will only do so with Malay votes, producing the type of compliant non-Malay leaders, who are likely to serve as apologists for the strengthening of Malay benefits. In 2004, Umno won 107 out of 219 seats, just three seats short 50 percent. It is likely Umno will continue to strengthen its position within BN, and reform the cabinet, and hence government policy accordingly. But the biggest prize for Umno lies elsewhere. Penang is the frontline state for more than one reason. While the opposition has hopes of a major victory, it just may be Umno who takes control. Umno currently controls 14 state seats, to Gerakan’s 13, MCA’s nine and MIC’s two. If the opposition comes close but fails to win 21 state seats to form state government, it is quite possible that Umno will emerge with more seats than the other BN component parties combined. At that point, it will be hard for Abdullah to resist the calls for an Umno chief minister, and will probably offer Gerakan an additional junior cabinet position in exchange for the CM position. MCA, Gerakan and MIC are probably well aware of their eroding position and will use it to call for voters to strengthen their position vis-a-vis Umno. However, with little ability to negotiate from strength, and without the political will to leave the coalition and jeopardise their personal benefits, they are unlikely to gain much – apart from a public holiday or two.